人民币国际化的战略反思与超越

Internationalization of the Renminbi: Strategical Rethinking and Beyond

中国经济的快速发展特别是规模扩张,既提出了人民币国际化的要求,也导致了对人民币国际化的相对乐观情绪。需要指出的是,国内外对于人民币国际化的研究大都偏重于经济与金融因素,很少涉及政治和军事维度。通过对美元、英镑、德国马克、欧元、日元等货币的国际化进程的简要考察可以发现,大国货币的国际化是一个系统工程,既受一国经济规模的决定性影响,也需要政治、军事等其他非经济因素的重要支持。基于对这一历史分析的冷静反思,笔者认为,人民币国际化的当前进程存在诸多不足,特别是严重忽视了人民币国际化进程中的国家战略规划、政治与军事等非经济要素的作用、人民币国际化的长期性与复杂性以及人民币国际化的微观经济与金融基础。因此,下一阶段的人民币国际化进程需要重点关注以下四个问题,即:尽快出台人民币国际化的一揽子国家战略,进一步提升中国军事实力、调整外交政策方针,清楚认识人民币国际化进程的艰巨性及长期性,切实提高人民币的国际使用,夯实人民币国际化的微观基础。

For more than three decades, the Chinese economic growth has continued and sustained, and resulted in the second biggest economy in the world. Then the internationalization of the renminbi has been raised, and there is also some optimism about the internationalization process. However, the focus of domestic and foreign academic research falls mainly on economic and financial factors, while overlooking other factors such as politics and military. By studying the history of the internationalization of the dollar, sterling, mark, euro and Japanese yen, we found that the currency internationalization of a great power is a systemic project, which is affected not only by its economic scale but also by political and military factors. In this regard, the paper has the following strategic rethinking: the government of China lacks a national strategy on the internationalization of the renminbi; the political and military factors have been overlooked; the chronicality and complicateness of the internationalization process has been ignored; and the microeconomic and financial foundation has also been underestimated. According to the analysis above, the authorities should employ the systemic and complete strategy to successfully promote the internationalization of the renminbi, which includes outlining a national strategic blueprint, strengthening military power and readjusting Chinese foreign policy, taking seriously the daunting and complicated task of the internationalization, widening international usage of the renminbi and building a strong micro-foundation.