摘要
本文在阿西莫格鲁(Acemoglu)关于产业结构分布与经济波动关系研究的基础上,引入劳动力占比,实证分析了中国产业结构分布与经济波动之间的关系。基于中国投入产出表的数据,设定多种产业规模指标反映中国不同产业的关联度差异,既验证中国产业结构的不对称性,也探讨了产业层面潜在的波动形成源。通过Nadaraya-watson非参数估计回归,发现产业规模不对称时,产业部门的波动确实会导致宏观经济波动。由于高阶关联关系的存在,波动会有一定的持续性,对宏观经济的影响较大,产业波动可以解释9%的宏观波动原因。
Based on the study of Acemoglu（2012）,this paper goes a step further by introducing the influence of labor force and empirically studying the relationship between industrial structure distribution and economic fluctuation in China. According to the input-output table,several indices related to the scale of different industries are set to reflect their correlation disparities,not only proving that asymmetry does exist in China’s industrial structure,but also exploring the sources of fluctuation on the industry level.This paper uses the Nadaraya-Watson non-parametric regression to prove that micro industrial fluctuation will lead to economic fluctuation when the industrial structure is asymmetric,and that the fluctuation will pervade to quite a big scale in the macro economics due to higher degree correlation.It is found that micro industrial fluctuation can explain about 9% of macro fluctuation in China.
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第1期3-10,共8页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"世界产业发展新趋势及中国培育发展战略性新兴产业跟踪研究"(12AZD046)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"新产业革命背景下中国产业转型的体制机制创新研究"(13AZD072)
国家自然科学基金项目"基于技术和制度共同演化的战略性新兴产业协同创新机制研究"(71302021)
关键词
经济波动
产业结构
投入产出
分散理论
economic fluctuation
industrial structure
input-output relation
Diversification Theory
