中国超额货币识别——基于产业结构调整的视角

Identification of Excess Money in China:Based on the Respective of Industrial Structure Adjustment

本文基于产业结构调整的超额货币识别模型,研究了农业、工业、服务业和金融四个部门的超额货币需求行为。研究发现,只有超过总产值增长速度的部门增长才能吸收超额货币,这意味着影响货币需求的因素未必同时是影响超额货币需求的因素。检验结果显示:服务业增加值占比提高和工业增加值占比下降均能引致超额货币需求,而农业部门不会对超额货币需求产生影响。另外,金融市场交易额的增加也会吸收超额货币供给。这意味着超额货币可能在产业结构调整过程中被消化,并不必然形成通货膨胀隐患,但货币政策仍将对金融市场活跃度下降过程中货币回吐做出防范。

Based on the excess money identification model of industrial structure adjustment,this paper studies the excess money demand behavior of four departments—agriculture,industry,service and finance.The study finds that only sector growth over output growth can absorb excess money,which means that factors which affect the demand for money are not necessarily to affect the excess demand for money at the same time.Empirical results show that the increase of the proportion of service industry and the decrease of the proportion of industry can lead to the excess demand for money,while the department of agriculture may not.In addition,the increase of the financial market turnover also absorbs the excess money supply,which means that the excess money may melt in the process of industrial structure adjustment,rather than forming inflation concerns,but monetary policy will keep a look out for money gains in the decrease of financial market activities.