安徽省全要素生产率的测算与经济解释——基于时变产出份额改进的索洛残差法

Calculation and Economics Explanation on Total Factor Productivity in Anhui Province—Solow Residual Method Based on the Time-varying Output Share Improvement

文章运用状态空间模型推导出C-D生产函数的时变要素产出份额,并以此改进索洛残差法计算安徽省1992-2012年的TFP增长率,实证分析结果发现,安徽省TFP增长率变动趋势与全省宏观经济运行高度吻合,其变化滞后于长三角地区大约2年时间,但近年来变化时差逐步趋同。计量结果显示:安徽省1992-2012年平均TFP增长率为1.13%,相对较高;TFP增长率是GDP增长率的Granger原因,反之则不成立;安徽省经济增长属于资本投入型,技术进步对经济增长的平均贡献率仅为7%,缺乏效率。最后得出促成技术进步的内生增长动力、提升人力资本的潜在增长动力、保证资本等实体要素的基础支撑力是未来安徽省经济持续稳定发展的根本保证。

This paper deduces the time-varying factor output share of Cobb-Douglass productive function using the statespace model,and improves the Solow residual method to calculate the TFP growth rate of Anhui province from 1992 to 2012. The empirical analysis indicates that the change trend of TFP growth rate in Anhui is highly consistent withthe province’s macroeconomic performance,and lags behind the Yangtze River Delta region about two years,but thechange time is gradually convergent in recent years. The measurement results show that：the average annual TFP growthrate of Anhui is 1.13% from 1992 to 2012,which is relatively high;TFP growth rate is Granger cause of GDP growth,not vice versa;Anhui economic growth is due to capital investment,whereas the average contribution of technologicalprogress to economic growth is merely 7%,less efficient. Finally,the paper draws the following conclusions：promotingthe endogenous growth momentum of technological progress,enhancing the potential growth impetus of human capitaland ensuring the supporting force of capital and other physical elements are the fundamental guarantee for the sustainableand stable economic development of Anhui province in the future.