我国公共支出增长及波动对经济增长的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Growth and Fluctuation of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth

文章采用随机增长模型来研究政府的公共开支的增长与波动对经济增长的影响。首先,文章给出了随机优化问题的理论基础;然后给出了一个随机增长模型,该模型把公共开支与经济增长联系起来,从理论上推导分析公共开支的平均增长和波动对经济增长的影响;接着选取我国31个省份1995-2012年间在科教文化、社会福利、环境保护、交通运输方面的公共支出的平均值和方差为解释变量建立了多元线性回归模型,实证检验表明:这四种类型公共支出的增长和波动可能促进经济增长也可能阻碍经济增长;文章最后给出了相应的分析和建议。

The paper uses a stochastic growth model to study the impact of the growth and fluctuation of public ex-penditure on economic growth. Firstly,it provides the theoretical basis of stochastic optimization problems. Second-ly,it gives a stochastic growth model which relates to public expenditure and economic growth,and deduces andanalyzes theoretically the impact of the average growth and fluctuation of public expenditure on economic growth.Then it chooses the mean and variance of public expenditure in many fields as explanation variables,which coverscience,education and culture,social welfare,environmental protection and transportation in 31 provinces,autono-mous regions and municipalities of China from 1995 to 2012, and builds a multiple linear regression model. Theempirical test shows that the growth and fluctuation of the four types of public expenditures may promote or hindereconomic growth. Finally,the paper offers the corresponding analyses and suggestions.