利率与公司债务期限结构的实证研究——基于制造业的经验分析

An Empirical Study on Interest Rate and Corporate Debt Maturity Structure—Experience Analysis Based on Manufacturing Industry

文章选取2005-2012年A股制造业公司的非平衡面板数据,通过固定效应模型和随机效应模型实证检验了利率与企业债务期限结构之间的关系。结果表明,名义利率越高,债务融资成本越大,上市公司会使用更多的短期债务,债务期限结构越短;通货膨胀率越高,债务融资的代理成本会越大,上市公司获得长期债务的难度较大,因而会使用较多的短期债务,债务期限结构越短;实际利率对债务期限结构的影响方向与名义利率相反:实际利率越高,上市公司使用更多的长期债务,债务期限结构越长。进一步的研究发现,相较于民营企业,国有企业对利率的敏感度更高;无论是国有企业还是民营企业,对名义利率的敏感度均比实际利率高。文章为宏观政策如何影响微观企业债务结构提供了新的经验证据。

Based on an unbalanced panel data of A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2005 to 2012,thisstudy examines empirically the relationship between interest rates and corporate debt maturity structure by employ-ing fix effect model and random effect model. The results show that： The higher the nominal interest rates, thegreater the financing costs,the more short-term debts the listed companies will use and the shorter the debt maturi-ty structure. The higher the inflation rates, the greater the agency costs of debt financing, the more difficult thelisted companies will obtain long-term debts,the more short-term debts the listed companies will use and the short-er the debt maturity structure. And the real interest rates are positively correlated with the debt maturity structure：The higher the real interest rates,the more long-term debts the listed companies will use and the longer the debtmaturity structure. The further study reveals that state-owned enterprises are even more sensitive to the changes ofinterest rates compared with private businesses. No mater state-owned enterprises or private businesses are more sen-sitive to the changes of nominal interest rates than that of real interest rates. This paper provides some new empiri-cal evidence on how the macro policies affect enterprises’ decisions.