丝绸之路经济带城市可持续发展能力测度、预警与提升对策

The Measure ment,Warning and Improvement Research on the City Sustainable Development Ability in the Silk Road Economic Belt

依据科学性、实用性、完备性和可行性的原则,文章建立了由资源、环境、经济、社会四个子系统组成的丝绸之路经济带城市可持续发展能力指标体系,利用改进的熵值法对丝绸之路经济带各城市的四个子系统进行定量评估。以资源、环境得分作为输入,以经济、社会得分作为输出,运用三种DEA模型对丝绸之路经济带城市可持续发展能力进行测度。评价结果显示,丝绸之路经济带城市可持续发展能力存在较明显的地域差异,从东向西依次递减,通过贝叶斯判别函数进行验证,证明测度方法是科学的。因此,统筹区域发展具有较强的现实意义。

Based on the principles of science ,practicality ,completeness and feasibility ,the ability of city sustainable development index system wes established composed of resource ,environment ,economy ,so‐cial four subsystems for the silk road economic belt ,using the improved entropy method to assess quantita‐tively for four subsystems of the city in the silk road economic belt .Using resource ,environment score as input ,using economic ,social ,score as output ,three kinds of DEA model were used to measure the ability of sustainable development of city in the silk road economic belt .Evaluation results show that ：there are distinct regional differences of the capacity of the city sustainable development in the silk road economic belt ,descending from east to west ,the measure result verified by Bayes discriminant function that the measure method is scientific w hich has a strong practical significance to collaborate regional development .