基于扩散指数法的小城镇失业预警模型及实证分析——以福建龙岩市为例

Unemployment Early Warning System in Small Town Based on the DI Method Taking Fujian Longyan as an Example

从龙岩市的基本情况出发,利用逐步回归法改进失业预警模型,构建基于扩散指数法(DI)的失业预警模型。通过DI发现龙岩的失业警兆指标在上升,同时小城镇的失业呈现出一些特性。根据实证分析结果,提出有效控制失业风险、防止失业问题恶化的政策建议。

Stepwise regression method and the general information of Longyan are used. The unemployment model is structured based on the diffusion Index（ DI）. From the DI,it is found that the warning signs are rising. Small town unemployment has its characteristic. Some advice on the control of unemployment is given.