给水管网抗震对策的重要度分析方法研究

Analysis method for importance of water supply network earthquake resistance

针对城市给水管线不同管段在灾后对于管网整体可靠度影响的差异性,为了能够较好地评价不同管段对管网系统连接可靠度的贡献,引入失效概率重要度和关键重要度,建立了基于历史经验方法的管网可靠度及管线失效概率重要度、关键重要度计算模型。实例计算结果表明,该模型计算的管网连接可靠度结果与其他文献方法的计算结果基本一致,验证了模型的合理性、有效性。进而应用该模型计算出各段管线的失效概率重要度、关键重要度,对管线防灾等级划分,给出了管网分割方法与管网震后恢复策略。研究结果为编制给水管网抗震防灾规划、震后管网恢复计划及制定出相应的抗灾应急措施提供依据。

Based on the impact variance of different urban municipal water supply pipes on the network stability after earthquake,this paper set up calculation model for network reliability,pipe probability importance degree,and critical degree by using the probability degree and critical de-gree.This model,which was based on experience,was supposed to evaluate the contribution of different pipes on network connection.The practical calculation results showed that network con-nection reliability calculated from this model basically matched the results from references,which verified the rationality and effectiveness of this model.Furthermore,this model was used to calcu-late the probability importance and critical degree of different pipe.Based on the calculation re-sults,pipe disaster prevention grade was set up and the network classification method and restora-tion strategies after earthquake were offered.This study would be reference for water supply net-work earthquake and disaster prevention planning,network restoration after earthquake,and cor-responding disaster emergence measures.