贸易自由化、生产率“饱和”与就业

Trade Liberalization,Productivity “Saturation” and Employment

基于2004～2012年工业中33个细分行业样本数据，对贸易自由化对就业影响的阶段性特点进行了分析。实证结果表明，部分劳动密集型行业对就业的影响呈“倒U型”特征，生产率已经达到“饱和”。但从总体上来看，生产率对就业的扩大效应仍有一定的上升空间。在这一行业发展的阶段特点下，贸易自由化对就业总体上具有正向溢出效应。同时，工资上升促进了就业；释放“结构红利”促进生产率提升是解决就业矛盾的根本策略。

Based on the 33 industry segments sample data from 2004 to 2012 , the impact of trade liberalization on employ-ment on the stage characteristics were analyzed .The empirical results show that some labor-intensive industries impact on employment was “inverted U” features;productivity has reached “saturation.” On the whole, however, the expansion of the productivity effect on employment is still some room for growth .At this stage of development of the industry characteristics , the trade liberalization has a positive spillover effect on employment .In addition, it has also been promoting employment wage increase is an important conclusion .Therefore, the release of ＆quot;structural bonus＆quot;to promote productivity improvement is to solve the fundamental contradiction of employment policy .