二元经济融合对国际收支影响分析

Impact of Dual Economic Integration on International Balance of Payment

本文根据中国二元经济中劳动力市场的特点,构建开放条件下两部门随机动态一般均衡模型,分析二元经济融合、技术进步、国际收支等宏观经济变量之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)二元经济融合和农民工进城数量的增加对中国大部分宏观经济变量有正向影响,会引起贸易顺差,提高农民工工资,促进消费和国家总产出水平;(2)城市部门的技术进步不仅对本部门有益,还会引起贸易顺差和提高农民工工资,吸收更多的农民工进城;(3)农村部门的技术进步会提高农民收入水平,吸收农村更多劳动力,但是会引起贸易逆差;(4)二元经济融合对外国的消费和产出有正的溢出效应。

This paper analyzes the causes of China＇s international surplus in the current account under the dual economic framework. Combining the reading of the characteristics of the dual economy and applying DSGE model, this paper analyzes the influence of labor market barriers on migrant workers and the current account and other macro variables. The findings suggest that： （1） the decline in labor market barriers is beneficial to most variables and can accrue to the current account, promote consumption, and elevate immigrant workers＇ wage and total national output; （2） the technological process in the urban industries can materialize a surplus in the current account and benefit both urban and rural sectors; （3） the technological process in the rural industries can raise the farmers＇ wage level, absorb more rural labors, while it could lead to trade deficit; （4） the dual economic integration has positive spillover effect on the consumption and output of foreign countries.