中国在世界反倾销中角色地位变化的社会网络分析

Social Network Analysis on Changes of China's Role and Status in World Anti-dumping

本文以世界反倾销最主要的37个成员的反倾销调查数据为基础,将1995-2013年分成两个阶段,分别构建了两个阶段的37×37的邻接矩阵,采用社会网络分析方法对比分析了中国在世界反倾销中角色地位的变化。研究表明,世界对中国的反倾销明显加强,但中国通过反倾销保护自身利益的偏好也在加强;中国控制其他成员间反倾销关系的能力明显加强,同时其他成员对美国反倾销行为的模仿几率很大,但对欧盟的模仿几率明显降低;中国陷入反倾销摩擦的程度比印度更深;世界反倾销有向少数成员集中的倾向,并且中国维持在核心地带;长期以来,中国倾向于被动接受国外的反倾销,且中国所处群体的自反性不显著。为实现我国对外贸易的可持续发展,本文从经济合作、贸易均衡等方面提出了政策建议。

Based on anti-dumping data of the leading 37 member countries, this paper divides the period of 1995-2013 into two phases, respectively constructs the adjacency matrix of 37 37 in two phases, and comparatively analyzes the changes of China＇s role and status in the world＇s anti-dumping activities by applying social network analysis. The findings show that the world＇s anti-dumping activities against China have obviously intensified, but China＇s preference of protecting its own interests through anti-dumping has also increased; China＇s abili- ty of controlling the anti-dumping relations with other members has significantly improved; the other members are inclined to imitate the way of American an- ti-dumping actions, while the imitation on that of the EU has significantly reduced; China suffered much more in the anti-dumping frictions than India; the world＇s anti-dumping has a tendency of concentrating on a certain few members and China remains at the center; China tends to passively endure foreign anti-dumping actions for a long time and the awareness of the reflexivity on China＇ s side is not significant. In order to achieve the sustainable development of China ＇s foreign trade, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations regarding economic cooperation and trade balance, etc.