企业出口市场多元化可以减弱出口波动吗?——以制造业为例

Can Export Market Diversification Weaken Export Volatility in Manufacturing Firms?

根据中国海关数据库和中国工业数据库得到的2000—2005年连续出口5年以上的制造业企业样本,研究了出口市场多元化对企业出口波动的影响。实证研究结果显示,出口市场多元化程度对出口波动呈倒U型影响,出口市场多元化必须达到一定程度,才可以减弱出口波动。分位数回归的结果表明,当出口市场的需求波动越大时,多元化越能够体现出稳定出口的价值,这验证了为何每次在出口遭遇巨大波动时,国家都会提出出口市场多元化战略。国有企业出口市场多元化有利于减弱出口波动,外资企业出口市场多元化对出口波动呈稳健的倒U型影响。

Using the databases of Chinese Customs Trade Statistics （CCTS） and Chinese Annual Survey of Industrial Firms （CASIF） for the years from 2000 to 2005, this paper studies the impact of export market diversification upon export volatility by selecting the Chinese manufacturing enterprises which have continued exporting for more than five years. The empirical study finds that there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between the export market diversification and the export volatility. Only with the export market diversification reaching a certain degree, can the export volatility be weakened. The results of quantile re- gression show that when the fluctuation of demand in export markets is larger, the export market diversification is better in its val- ue to weaken the export volatility. This can verify the fact that China always proposes the export market diversification strategy when the export suffers from the volatility. The export market diversification in the state-owned enterprises （SOEs） tends to lower the volatility and there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between the export market diversification and the export instability in foreign-owned enterprises.