衡阳市金融发展与经济增长的相互关系——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Empirical Study on the Relationships Between Financial Development and the Economic Growth in Hengyang——An empirical study based on VAR model

文章运用现代计量经济学方法,研究了1993至2013年衡阳市金融发展与经济增长之间的双向作用机理。研究结果表明:从长期来看,衡阳市金融发展序列与经济增长水平序列通过了协整检验,即两者之间存在长期均衡关系;短期情况则有所不同,由于受随机干扰项的影响,二者长期均衡关系会产生偏离,并且暂时的偏离调整呈现明显区别,金融发展水平的短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度大于经济增长水平;金融发展水平与经济增长水平之间相互作用的效果存在明显差异。经济增长的冲击对金融发展的影响强烈,金融发展的变化对经济增长水平的影响相对微弱。在此基础上,文章结合衡阳市实际,对衡阳金融业发展提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper uses modern econometric methods to analyse two-way mechanism between financial development and the e- conomic growth in HengYang from 1993 to 2013. The results show that： in the long run, there are co-integration relationships between financial development and the economic growth; in the short term, even though both may deviate from the long-run equilibrium relation- ship, but the deviation is temporary, the adjustment of financial development from short-term fluctuations to the long-run equilibrium is greater than the economic growth ; the impact of the economic growth on the amount of financial development is remarkable, while the changes of financial development may have weak impact on the economic growth. Therefore, we shall polish the structure of loan in Hengyang while rationalize the financial system in Hengyang.