情绪波动、信息消费发散与福利分化效应——基于中国省际农村居民信息消费数据的数值模拟分析

Mood Swings,Information Consumption Dissemination and Welfare Differentiation Effects

本文基于1993--2012年中国农村居民信息消费数据，在进行信息消费收敛性分析之后，对不同区域农村居民信息消费增速提升的福利效应进行了测算与比较。研究发现：第一，中国不同地区农村居民的信息消费数据之间存在“数字鸿沟”，且“数字鸿沟”呈现扩大趋势。第二，信息消费增速提升对中国农村居民的福利改善作用相当大，即使提高1％，就相当于在消费者无限生命期界内每年增加7．09％-78．75％的信息消费产品或服务。第三，在相同主观偏好参数下，不同地区农村居民信息消费增速提升的福利效应由低到高排序依次为东北地区、中部地区、西部地区和东部地区。考虑消费者的主观风险偏好特征后，信息消费增速提升1％对东部地区居民的福利影响高于其他地区农村居民。因此，在稳步推进收入分配和社会保障体制改革的同时，应加大对中西部地区信息基础设施建设的政策支持力度。

This paper use China＇s four blocks rural residents＇ information consumption data from 1992 to 2012, on the basis of consumer convergence analysis, estimate and compare the welfare effects of improving the growth rate of different areas rural residents information consumption. The study fotmd that： Firstly, there exist the ＂digital divide＂ between China＇s four regions, and as time goes on, the ＂distal divide＂ is not ouly not reduced, but expanding. Secondly, the welfare of improving rural residents＇ information consumption growth rate is quite big. Even 1% increase, equivalent to an increase of 7.09% - 78.75% annual information consumer products or services in the consumer unlimited lifetime profession. Last but not least, in the same subjective preference parameters, the sort of enhancing rural growth rate of information consumption is the northeast region, the central region, the western region and eastern region. After considering the characteristics of subjective risk preferences of consumer,s, eastern region rural resident＇s welfare impact of 1% information consumption growth higher than of other region rural residents. Thus, government should steadily advance income distribution and social seettrity system reform, at the same time should increase central and western regions information infrastructure policy support.