中国菲利普斯曲线扁平化了吗——基于广义价格指数的实证研究

Does Chinese Phillips curve become flat?--Empirical study based on generalized price index

科学判定菲利普斯曲线的形状对于货币当局实现经济周期波动与通货膨胀之间的动态平衡至关重要。鉴于经济全球化与虚拟经济的发展使通货膨胀机理发生了深刻地变化,CPI通胀率不能完全反映真实的通胀水平,本文构建纳入资产价格的广义价格指数(GPI)作为新的通胀衡量指标,分析经济周期波动与通货膨胀的动态关联,检验中国菲利普斯曲线的形状。研究发现:在本文考察的样本区间内,GPI通胀率对于经济周期波动仍具有较高的敏感性",菲利普斯曲线扁平化"假说在中国并不适用。

It is critical for the currency board to judge the shape of Philips curve to realize the dynamic equilibrium between the fluctuation in economic cycle and inflation. Given that economic globalization and the development of virtual economy lead to profound changes and that CPI inflation rate can not reflect real inflation level completely, we set up GPI of asset price as the new indicator to measure inflation, analyze the dynamic connection between fluctuation in economic cycle and inflation, and test the shape of China＇ s Philips curve. Our research finds that in the sample interval of this paper, GPI inflation rate is sensitive to the fluctuation in economic cycle, and that the hypothesis of ＂the flatization of Philips curve＂ is not proper for China.