煤矿重特大事故影响因素的关联度计算与分析

Calculation of correlation degree and analysis on influencing factors of major safety accident in coal mine

确保煤矿生产安全,有效预防和控制煤矿事故的发生是一项长期而又艰巨的任务。选取2007～2012年发生的死亡人数为十人以上的90起重大、特大煤矿事故为样本,按照影响煤矿事故发生的人、设备、环境、技术、管理五个方面,梳理出十二个具体影响因素,应用灰色关联分析方法计算各因素与事故发生的关联度。结果表明,在影响重特大煤矿事故的因素中,关联度最大的是人因素中利益驱动下的违法行为,其次依次是复杂的地质条件、安全管理制度、现场安全管理、安全意识、＂三违＂行为、技术水平、技术管理、设施设备性能维护、人员素质水平、设备设施、复杂环境的应对措施。

It is a tough and long-term task to ensure production safety of coal mine and to prevent and control coal mine accidents.Based on analysis of 90 coal mine accidents during 2007 ～ 2012,in each of which more than 10 persons died,12 influencing factors were identified from five perspectives involved in coal mine accidents,i.e.,personnel,equipment,circumstances,technique and management.The correlation degrees of these influencing factors with accident occurrence were evaluated with grey correlation analysis method.Results showed that,the top influencing factor with the greatest correlation degree is illegal behaviors driven by benefit in personnel perspective,followed by complex geological conditions,safety management institution,field safety management,safety awareness,three-violation behavior,technical level,technical management,performance maintenance of facilities and equipment,quality and capability of personnel,equipment and facilities,and counter measures against complicated circumstances.