基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析

Analysis on consequences of major accidents in oil pipeline based on domino effect

针对近年来不断发生的输油管道重大事故,引入多米诺效应理论分析输油管道事故后果。首先依据多米诺效应机理,建立输油管道重大事故多米诺效应模型,然后采用PHAST软件确定初始事故影响范围,运用设备损坏概率和人员伤亡概率模型计算初始事故对周围设备和个体的影响概率,从而可以从设备损坏、人员伤亡和事故影响范围三个方面定量分析输油管道的事故后果。研究结果对制定输油管道重大事故应急抢险方案,避免事故影响范围进一步扩大具有理论指导意义。

Aiming at the major accidents of oil pipeline happened frequently in recent years,the domino effect theory was used to analyze the consequences of oil pipeline accidents.At first,the domino effect model of major accidents in oil pipeline was established based on domino effect mechanism.Then,the influences range of initial events was determined by PHAST software,and the equipment damage probability and human casualty probability models were applied to calculate the influence probability of initial events to surrounding equipments and individuals.At last,the accidents consequences of oil pipeline could be quantitatively analyzed from three aspects,namely,equipment damage,human casualty and accident influence range.It has important theoretical guiding significance for making the emergency rescue plans of pipeline accident and avoiding the further expanding of accident influence range.