基于模糊测度的导流风险决策

Risk decision of diversion system based on Fuzzy Measures

水利水电工程导流方案优选是多目标决策问题,其常用决策指标均与导流风险相关,因此决策指标相关性的分析与解耦是保证决策正确合理的关键性问题。分析并量化各导流风险决策指标,以k-可加模糊测度表示并解耦指标间的关联性,根据最大模糊测度熵原则求解决策指标和指标集的权重,结合Choquet积分计算方案的综合评价值,对导流方案进行排序优选。实例分析表明,该方法能合理表达投资、工期及风险损失等决策指标间的关联性,提高决策准确性,为水利水电工程导流方案优选提供了有效方法。

The diversion scheme decision of hydropower project is a multi-objective decision-making issue, in which the commonly used decision-making indexes are always related with diversion risk, so correlation analysis and decoupling for the de-cision indexes are key issues to ensure correct scheme decision. The relevance of the decision indexes was characterized and de-coupled with k-additive fuzzy measures on the basis of analyzing and quantizing different indexes, and the weights of indexes were determined according to maximum fuzzy measure entropy principle. Finally, the diversion schemes were ranked and optimal scheme was selected according to synthetic appraisal value given by Choquet integration. The case study shows that this method is effective for characterizing the relevance of the indexes such as construction investment, construction period and dynamic risk ra-tionally and enhancing the decision-making veracity.