鄱阳湖入江径流变化规律及成因分析

Characteristics and genesis analysis of variation of Poyang Lake flow into Yangtze River

为了深入认识鄱阳湖入江流量变化规律，采用多种水文分析方法，研究了湖口水文站1950~2012年径流、洪季径流、枯季径流、年最大流量和枯季最小流量的变化趋势、随机性、突变性和周期性。结果表明，枯季最小流量序列存在显著的增加趋势，其余序列变化趋势不明显；入江径流年内分配趋于均匀、集中度减小。洪季丰枯交替频率高于枯季，年最大流量与枯季最小流量的变化波动尺度比较接近。

In order to understand the variation law of Poyang Lake flow into Yangtze River, the trend, randomness, point mu-tation, variation period of the flow at Hukou Station from 1950 to 2012 are analyzed by using multiple methods. It is found that the increasing trend of minimum flow in dry season was obvious, while the rest was not; the annual distribution of the flow into Yangtze River tended to be uniform, and the concentration degree decreased. The alternative frequency of wet and dry in flood season was larger than that in dry season; the fluctuating scale of the annual maximum flow was close to those of the minimum flow in dry season.