连片特困地区扶贫开发成效多维动态评价分析研究——基于灰色关联分析法角度

Multidimensional dynamic evaluation of the poverty-alleviation achievements in China's fourteen destitute areas based on GRA

连片特困地区是中国未来十年扶贫攻坚主战场,其扶贫开发成效在很大程度上决定着《中国农村扶贫开发纲要(2011—2020年)》确定的目标是否能够实现。结合多维动态评价理论和灰色关联分析法设计的综合评价模型,通过对片区扶贫开发成效的现状和增长两方面进行评价分析后发现,四省藏区、秦巴山、燕山-太行山和滇西边境四个片区在三种评价模式下的扶贫成效排名均靠前;但是,秦巴山、罗霄山、大兴安岭南麓、南疆三地州、大别山等片区的发展现状排名高于增长排名,未来综合排名可能会下降;乌蒙山、滇桂黔石漠化、武陵山、吕梁山等片区的发展现状排名低于增长排名,未来综合排名将有进一步提升的空间;另外,作为区域发展与扶贫攻坚试点的武陵山片区,其扶贫开发成效相对来说较差。

China＇s fourteen destitute areas are the main battlefield in next ten years for its poverty alleviation, whose effectiveness is closely related to the realization of the goal set up in China Rural Poverty Alleviation and Development Outline （ 2011 - 2020 ）. This paper adopts an integrated model based on the multidimensional dynamic evaluation theory and the gray relational analysis, and gives an analysis of the status and development of the poverty alleviation projects in these areas, and concludes that the Tibetan - inhabited areas in four provinces, Tsinling Mountains, Yanshan - Taihang Mountains, western borderland of Yunnan have achieved good poverty allevi- ation results assessed with three evaluation models, while Tsinling Mountains, Luoxiao Mountains, South Daxinganling, three prefectures in south Xinjiang and Dabie Mountains may have a lower overall development and Wumeng Mountains, Wuking Mountains, and some similar areas may have a quicker overall development. The Wuling Mountains faces a very hard task of poverty alleviation.