油田开发动态的多参数输入模拟预测方法

The Simulation and Prediction Method of Multi Parameter Input of Oilfield Development Dynamic

在进行考虑多种因素综合影响下油田开发动态指标预测时,缺少定量化模拟预测方法,油藏工程方法由于多属于机理型模型、单一条件统计规律模型,不适合此类条件下的定量预测。本文提出了一种考虑多参数约束控制拟合的开发动态预测方法,输入参数可包括产量、成本、工作量等。由统计理论根据历史信息实现系统指标变化情况的模拟,建立系统的输入输出关联关系,进而外推进行预测。提出的开发动态预测方法反映了实际开发过程中各种因素的复杂影响。

Reservoir engineering methods does not suit for quantitative prediction in multi-parameter conditions, which leads to a lack of prediction method for dynamic index in oilfield development. This paper presents a method to predict the development dynamic by constraint control fitting under multi-parameters. The input parameters may include production, cost, workload, and numerous other items. Based on the simulation of history information, it can make extrapolation forecast. This method reflects the complex of all kinds of factors in actual develooment orocess.