经济周期中产出波动与通货膨胀不对称动态关系研究

Study on the Asymmetric Dynamics Relation between Output Volatility and Inflation in the Business Cycle

建立不对称动态菲利普斯曲线理论研究经济周期中产出波动与通货膨胀不对称动态关系。该理论蕴含了经济扩张与收缩期中通胀持续性、产出波动对通胀的长短期影响差异特征及相关检验方法。运用该理论对中国相关季度数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:产出波动对通货膨胀短期中具有"顺周期"的正相关性,充当了"晴雨器"作用;长期中具有"逆周期"的负相关性,充当了"稳定器"作用。统计检验表明,经济周期中通货膨胀持续性及产出波动对通货膨胀的长短期影响具有显著不对称性,这种不对称性是中国经济转型期经济运行质量的历史检验,对现阶段追求经济增长质量具有深刻的政策启示。

The paper built a theory of asymmetric dynamics Phillips Curve in order to study the asymmetric dynamics relation between output volatility and inflation in the business cycle ,which reflects the differences in characteristics of inflation persistence ,and the output volatility to inflation dynamics in the short and long term .Using this theory to analyze the China＆#39;s quarterly data ,the results showed that the output fluctuations affected on the inflation has a ＆quot;pro‐cyclical＆quot; positive correlation , acted as a＆quot;barometer＆quot;role in the short‐run ,and has a ＆quot;reverse cycle＆quot; negative correlation ,acted as a ＆quot;stabilizer＆quot;role in the long‐run . Statistical test showed that there were significant asymmetries characteristics of inflation persistence ,and the effects from the output volatility to inflation in the long‐run and short‐run . This asymmetry characteristic has a profound inspiration role when China implements the macroeconomic regulation and control policy .