2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震序列参数的早期特征

Parameter Characteristic in the Early Stage of Yunnan Ludian M_S6. 5 Earthquake Sequence in 2014

利用＂传染型余震序列＂（ETAS）模型,考虑不同的截止震级和序列持续时间的影响,对2014年鲁甸6.5级地震后9 d内的序列参数特征进行了研究。结果表明,当选取截止震级MC=ML2.0时,可获得相对稳定可靠的p值和α值等序列参数,其中p=0.89-1.10,显示了较慢的衰减特征,α值在震后5.0 d出现大幅下降,表明激发次级余震的能力出现显著变化。

Based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence （ETAS） model, considering the influence of different cutoff magnitude and duration time, we investigated the parameter characteristics in the early stage of Yunnan Ludian Ms6. 5 earthquake sequence in 2014. It is observed that the p and a values kept stable and reliable when the cutoff magnitude Mc = ME2. 0 was selected. The result of p = 0. 89 - 1.10 indicated that it had a slow decay rate of aftershocks. The α-value showed a sharp drop on the 5^th day after the main shock, which indicated the ability of provoking aftershocks change greatly.