经济增长、城市化与二氧化碳排放

Economic Growth,Urbanization and CO_2 Emissions

利用中国1995年~2011年间的省级面板数据,通过全国整体以及东部、中部和西部不同区域的角度分析经济增长、城市化对二氧化碳排放的影响,发现城市化与二氧化碳排放的关系在不同地区间存在着差异。东部地区,城市化与二氧化碳排放之间是线性递增的关系,而在其他地区,城市化与二氧化碳排放之间呈现倒＂u＂型关系。由于目前中国绝大多数地区的城市化水平越过了拐点,所以在中部和西部地区,城市化不会促进二氧化碳排放。无论是全国整体还是不同地区,经济增长与二氧化碳排放之间呈现正＂u＂型关系,不过其拐点很低,所以对于中国而言,经济增长会促进二氧化碳排放。经济增长、人口规模和工业化是促进二氧化碳排放的主要影响因素,而能源利用效率是抑制二氧化碳排放的主要因素。

Using the provincial panel data of China from 1995 to 2011, and from the perspective of the whole country and different regions, this paper studies the impact of economic growth and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions, and concludes that the relationship between emissions and urbanization is different among the regions. In the eastern region, carbon dioxide emissions increase monotonically with urbanization, while in the other regions, there exists an inverted U-curve-shaped relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and urbanization. Due to the current urbanization levels that are beyond the intlection point, urbanization will not promote carbon dioxide emissions for the central and western regions. In the whole country and different regions, there exists a U-curve-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions, but the turning point is very low, so for China, economic growth will promote carbon dioxide emissions. Economic growth, population size and industrialization are the main factors to promote carbon dioxide emissions, whereas energy use efficiency is the main factor to inhibit carbon dioxide emissions.