五边平行进近冲突风险定量分析模型

Flight Conflict Risk Quantitative Analysis Model of Parallel Final Approach

针对飞机五边平行进近时飞行冲突,提出了一种五边平行进近飞行冲突定量分析模型。模型通过飞机在任意时刻的标称位置坐标与因不确定性因素导致的航迹偏移量之和,形成飞机任意时刻真实位置坐标,基于此推导出飞机在五边平行进近时冲突风险计算公式。在分析不确定性因素导致航迹偏离时,提出了一种基于布朗运动的随机过程来描述因干扰因素导致飞机随机运动的方法。在建立模型后,使用蒙特卡罗仿真方法计算了飞行冲突概率,结果理想。

To the conflict when aircraft on parallel final approach,this paper proposes a flight conflict risk quantitative analysis model of parallel final approach. In the quantitative analysis model, the actual coordi- nates of the aircraft at any time synthesized by nominal position of the aircraft at any time and offset due to uncertainty, and based on the distance between aircraft every moment derived the formula of to calcu- late the conflict risk of parallel final approach. This paper presents a stochastic process based on Brownian motion to describe the method of the aircraft due to confounding factors lead to random motion. Flight col- lision probability is calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation method to build the model.