1961～2013年天峻地区降水变化特征分析

The Analysis on Precipitation Variation Characteristic in Tianjun during 1961～2013

利用青海省天峻县1961~2013年月降水数据,采用线性倾向估计和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,对天峻县53a来降水量的年、季、汛期和月变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：天峻县降水的年和季节变化特征明显;夏季、汛期和年降水量呈显著的上升趋势,主要是7月份降水量变化造成的;冬季降水波动较大,夏季降水相对稳定;进入21世纪00年代后期,年、夏季和汛期降水量增加趋势明显,突变时间均发生在90年代中期。

We used monthly precipitation data of Tianjun County of Qinghai Province during 1961-2013,and adopted linear trend estimation and Mann-Kendall mutation methods to analyzed annual,season,flood season and monthly variation trend of rainfall in Tianjun. The result indicate that the annual and season variation characteristic of precipitation was obvious in Tianjun; Precipitation was significantly increase trend in summer,flood season and all year,mainly result of the change of rainfall in July; It was large fluctuation of precipitation in winter but stable in summer; Precipitation in annual,summer and flood season was significantly increase trend since 2000,and all of the mutation had happened during middle of 1990 s.