基于信息扩散理论的吉林省旅游地资源灾害风险评价

Evaluating Disaster Risks of Tourism Destination in Jilin Provice Based on the Information Diffusion Theory

利用信息扩散理论和风险分析理论对吉林省旅游地资源灾害进行风险分析,解决了旅游地资源灾害样本资料限制的问题;计算出了吉林省旅游地资源灾害发生概率,并得出了吉林省旅游地资源灾害风险值。结果表明,吉林省旅游地资源灾害风险在吉林市处于高风险级别,长春市的风险等级仅次于吉林市,属于中等风险级别,白山市、延边州处于低等风险等级,其他市处于轻风险级别。研究结果对吉林省旅游相关部门防灾减灾及旅游保险具有重要意义。

The theory of information diffusion theory was used to conduct risk analysis of tourism resources in Jilin province.The problems limiting on the tourist resources disaster of small sample data were studied.The probability of tourist resources in jilin province disaster was calculated to obtain the disaster risk value of tourist resources in Jilin province.Results showed that Changchun city,Jilin city was in the high risk level.Baishan,Yanji city were in medium level of risk.Other cities were in the lower level of risk.It will be of great significance for related department of Jilin province to prevent and mitigate disaster and enhance travel insurance.