能源消费对新疆经济发展的影响机理

Mechanism of Energy Consumption on the Regional Development in Xinjiang from 1978 to 2010

以系统分析法研究新疆能源消费、工业化、城市化、经济增长、固定资产投资的历史演变及特征,并采用动态计量经济模型,实证其之间的动态关系。结果显示:1改革开放以来,新疆的能源消费分别与工业化、城市化、经济增长和固定资产投资存在着长期稳定的比例关系。2能源消费与工业化互为格兰杰因果关系,能源消费与城市化不为格兰杰因果关系,经济增长和固定资产投资对能源消费存在单向的格兰杰因素。3新疆的工业化水平提升1个百分点,能源消费将增长0.565个百分点,能源消费增长1个百分点,工业化水平仅提升0.209个百分点;经济增长和固定资产投资水平提升1个百分点,能源消费将分别增长0.848个和0.571个百分点。当前新疆的工业化进程、经济增长、固定资产投资建设的有利条件仍是丰富的能源资源本底优势,如何保障本地能源消费的持续、有效、稳定供给以及能源的高效利用,将是关系到新疆区域经济长期稳定发展的基础性命题。

Energy consumption has complex relationships with economic growth, urbanization, industrialization and fixed assets investment （FAI） in different regions and different development stages. We demonstrated the a- bove causal relationships with the co-integration test and Granger causality test, and then analyzed the dynamic process during 1978 -2010. The conclusions are as follows： since the opening and reform, the energy consumption has kept a long and stable relationships with industrialization, urbanization, economic growth and FAI in Xinjiang; there is a Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and industrialization but not between energy consumption and urbanization while economic growth and FAI have a one-way Granger causality relationship with the energy consumption ; Whenever the industrialization index increases by 1% , it will lead to a 0. 565 % increase of energy consumption. If the energy consumption increases by 1%, the industrialization index will increase by 0.209%. When economic growth and FAI increase by 1%, energy consumption will increase by 0. 848% and O. 571% respectively. At the moment, the energy resources are the favorable conditions for industrialization, the e- conomic development and the fixed assets investment in Xinjiang. It is a fundamental proposition on how to ensure the stable and sustainable local energy supply and effective energy utilization, which related to the long-term stable regional economic development in Xinjiang.