非常规突发灾害事故的演化机理与演变路径分析

Analysis of the Evolution Mechanism and Evolution Path of Unconventional Emergency Disaster Accidents

为完善非常规突发灾害事故的演化机理及演变路径,提高应急指挥决策的准确性,本文在定义非常规突发灾害事故和介绍突变理论原理的基础上,通过轨迹交叉理论对非常规突发灾害事故的致因进行分析,建立了非常规突发灾害事故的尖点突变模型,并描述了此类灾害事故的五种具体演化模式;同时,基于灾害事故、承灾体、致灾体、应急救援活动四个要素,分析了非常规突发灾害事故几个关键情景的可能演变路径,旨在为针对非常规突发灾害事故的可能演变路径而进行应对提供决策依据。

For the purpose of perfecting the evolution mechanism and evolution path of unconventional emergency disaster accidents and improving the accuracy of the decision of emergency command,on the basis of defining unconventional emergency disaster accidents and introducing the catastrophe theory,through the analysis of the cause of the track theory,this paper builds the cusp catastrophe model of unconventional emergency disaster accidents.The model proves that unconventional emergency disaster accidents tend to occur when both unsafe behavior of human and unsafe condition of material are becoming worse,and the scale of the accidents depends on the level of the unsafe behavior or unsafe condition.The more unsafe the behavior or the condition is,the more serious the accidents are.At the same time,the research also describes five specific evolution patterns of the cusp catastrophe model and analyses possible evolution path of unconventional emergency disasters based on such four factors as case,disaster,object and activity.The research provides the decision basis for the response to unconventional emergency disaster accidents based on the possible evolution path.