基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型研究与应用

Study and Application of Combined Forecasting Based on IOWA Operator

以我国2000-2012年的工业增加值占GDP比重作为指标衡量工业化进程,通过使用多元回归方法、多项式预测法以及二次指数曲线平滑法这三种单项预测方法对工业增加值占GDP比重进行预测,给出相应的预测精度,并进行了精度比较。最后应用IOWA算子的组合预测模型进行预测,说明了组合预测对于工业增加值占GDP比重指标值可以带来更高预测精度。希望可以为有关部门研究宏观经济,制定相应政策提供参考。

Basing on the share of industrial added value of Chinese GDP in 2000 -2012 ,the multiple regression method, exponential smoothing method and method of polynomial were used to forecast the share of industrial added value of Chinese GDP. It got the corresponding prediction accuracy and compared the precision of each single model. In the last, it used the combined forecasting based on IOWA operator forecast and approved that using the combined forecasting based on IOWA operator to forecast the share of industrial added value of Chinese GDP has more advantages than just using single prediction. It would provide information for macroeconomic study and public polices in this study.