我国旅游季节性规律的探索性研究——以北京、上海、云南、四川、福建、海南为例

The Exploratory Research on Tourism Seasonality in our Country——A Case Study of Beijing,Shanghai,Yunnan,Sichuan and Fujian

旅游季节性作为一种明显但又可控性较差的旅游现象,受到国内外学界的广泛关注。我国受休假政策的影响,季节性表现的更加明显。目前由于统计数据的缺乏和不完整,国内对于我国季节性规律的整体性规律及大尺度、省际间的旅游季节性对比研究还比较少。本文首先从传统旅游人次及收入之外的全国宏观交通数据入手,试图分析我国整体性的旅游季节性分布规律。其次,基于面板数据的可得性,利用衡量旅游季节性集中性、强度、不均衡性的月度指数、季节性强度指数及基尼系数等一系列指标,分析各省市旅游季节性特点及淡旺季分布;从时空两个维度上对五个省市的旅游季节性进行对比,试图对我国旅游季节性规律做探索性研究。

Tourism seasonality, obvious but in poor controllability, has received great attention from industry and academia home and abroad. Suffered from the special holiday policy, the phenomenon in our country is far more distinct. By far, due to the lack of relevant statistics, there are few researches concerned the whole regular pattern of tourism seasonality in China and the contrastive researches between provinces in China. This article uses the national transportation statistics, trying to explore the whole regular pattern of tourism seasonality in China in a more macroscopic way. Then, based on the panel data we can get, uses several kinds of indexes-- monthly index, seasonality intense index and Gini Coeffient, takes advantage of Contrastive Analysis, analyzes the features of seasonality of the 5 provinces microscopically. Finally, compares the seasonality of the 5 provinces by space-time and tries to find some regular patterns of seasonality in China.