基于空间句法的城市慢行交通需求预测

Prediction of Slow City Traffic Demand Based on Space Syntax

基于空间句法理论提出一种较为新颖的城市慢行交通需求预测的方法,为道路设计以及城市整体路网的构建提供依据。并以交通现状图为基础,运用Arc Gis软件加载空间句法分析工具axwoman进行路网轴线图的绘制及空间分析变量值(连接度、控制值、全局集成度、局部集成度和平均深度)的计算。根据道路的连接度值,对现状部分道路慢行交通流量进行调查,根据慢行交通特性,进行流量和形态分析变量之间的回归分析,建立慢行交通量和形态分析变量间的拟合关系,进行路网其他路段的交通流量预测。最后通过案例分析验证其可行性,即此方法能较为准确的预测城市的慢行交通需求,为城市慢行交通需求预测提供了一种新的思路。

Based on space syntax theory a relatively new city slow traffic demand forecasting method was presented, which pro- vides a basis for the design and construction of the road network in the city as a whole. Based on the traffic situation and the use of ArcGIS software loading space syntax analysis tools axwoman, the network diagram axis was drawn and spatial analysis variable values （ connectivity, control values, global integration, local integration, the average depth） were calculated. Depending on the connection value of the road, some of the roads with slow traffic flow were investigated and according to the slow traffic characteristics, regression analysis between the morphological analysis and flow variables was conducted, and a fitting model was established to forecast the slow flow in the other sections of the road network. A case study was conducted to verify the feasibility of the model and indicated that the method is more accurate in predicting slow traffic needs of the city and has provided a new way of thinking in demand forecasting.