日本大震与中国及邻区中强地震的遥相关

Teleconnection between Great Earthquakes in Japan and Moderate-Strong Earthquakes in China and Its Vicinity

将日本从北至南划分为5个区,分析1900-2011年3月共110a期间发生的67个Ms=6.9-9.0大震事件,与其后4a在中国及邻区发生的Ms≥6.0（极个别为Ms=5.5-5.8）共569个中强地震的对应比较.得出结论：（1）日本大震和中国及邻区中强震二者有很好的遥相关关系；（2）分析了日本各区与中国及邻区地震相对应的特点；（3）中国地区地震的滞后时间多为0.5-2.0a,最长4a；（4）用“遥相关法”预测2011-2013年期间,中国及邻区的中强地震危险区.年度预测与实际发生地震检验结果显示：预测的34个次地震危险区中,“报对”28个次,约占总预测个次的82%,“虚报”6个次,约占18%,显示“遥相关法”对年度地震预测有一定效果；（5）提出“蜘蛛网”逆反应模型解释中国及邻区对日本大震的响应现象.

We quoted total 67 seismic events of Ms =6.9-9.0 in past 1 10 years （during 1 900 to March 201 1）in five divided re-gions from north to south in Japan and total 569 moderate-strong earthquakes of Ms ≥6.0 in China and its vicinity to study their correlativity.The corresponding comparison was carried out to compare each Japanese earthquake and earthquakes occurred in China and its vicinity within 4 years （predominantly,Ms ≥ 6.0）.It is found that there are good correlations between great earthquakes in Japan and moderate-strong earthquakes in China and its vicinity.By studying the correlation characteristics, there are lag intervals,mostly from 6 months to 2 years but no more than 4 years,when earthquakes occurred in China after earthquakes in Japan.The “teleconnection prediction method”to predict the moderate-strong seismic risk regions in China and its vicinity is applied and positive results of 82% correctness （6 false predictions in 34 earthquake regions）are obtained.We try to use a “spider web”model of reverse reaction to explain the correlativity of earthquakes which we studied.