乌鲁木齐市水资源供需优化决策的系统动力学仿真

System Dynamics Simulation of Water Resources Supply and Demand Optimization Decision-making in Urumqi City

随着干旱区城市水资源与生态环境—社会经济复合系统的矛盾日趋恶化,水资源配置倍受重视,系统性也成为决策的重要原则。以乌鲁木齐市为例,基于我国干旱区城市水资源供需系统反馈机制,建立系统动力学模型,设定5种方案模拟水资源供需变化。结果表明,中高速经济增长下,产业结构升级不能保证用水结构优化,城市规模增长驱动水资源供需差额和废污水排放增加;保持城市经济和人口低速发展,并调整产业结构、加强节水和水利投资改善力度,引入水源可在2020年实现0.165×108 m3水资源富余,2030年人均GDP增加到17.26万元,城镇化率达到98.03%,废污水排放量为3.03×108 m3。

With the deterioration of contradiction between water resources and ecological environment and social economy composite system in arid city,the allocation of water resources is carried much weight and the system has become an important principle of decision.Based on the feedback mechanism of urban water resources supply and demand system in arid area,this paper established a system dynamics model and set five kinds of schemes to simulate the dynamic changes of water supply and demand.The results show that under the rapid economic growth rate,the upgrading of the industrial structure can not guarantee the optimization of water use structure,and the growth of city scale can drive the increase of water resources supply and demand balance and sewage discharge;after keeping low speed of economic and population development in Urumqi,adjusting industrial structure and strengthen the investment in saving water and water conservancy facilities as well as transferring water to Urumqi,these efforts can realize 16.5million cubic meter water surplus in 2020,GDP per capita can increase to 172 600 Yuan in 2030,the urbanization rate can reach 98.03%,and the emission of waste water is 303 million cubic meter.