基于AMSAA模型的变电设备寿期决策方法

Life Cycle Management of Substation Equipment Based on AMSAA Model

针对传统的变电设备寿期决策方法多采用设备的更换数据进行分析来获取寿命分布曲线和可靠性指标,而忽略了运行过程中故障和维修对设备可靠性的影响问题,根据重要变电设备的维修数据远多于更换数据的特点,提出了采用AMSAA模型拟合变电设备在维修后的可靠性更新过程来获取设备的可靠性指标,克服了传统方法忽略维修和故障信息的缺点。实例应用结果表明,与传统方法相比,该方法提高了数据拟合的准确性,且得到的结果更符合变电设备的实际特点。

The current life cycle management of transformation equipment was obtained by the distribution fitting of historical life data and reliability index.This method is used widely but it ignores the influence on equipment reliability of the maintenance and total running time.In the actual running process,the maintenance data of critical transformation equipment is far more than the replacement data.According to this feature,this paper puts forward army materiel system analysis activity（AMSAA）model to simulate the change of the reliability process for getting the reliability index,which overcomes the defects of ignoring maintenance and fault information in traditional method.Compared with the traditional method,the illustration results show that the new method is more effective and closer to the actual situation.