自回归移动平均模型乘积季节模型在南昌市手足口病疫情预测中的应用

Application of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model in prediction of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease

目的探讨自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)乘积季节模型在手足口病预测中的应用,对手足口病的月发病数进行趋势预测。方法收集南昌市2009年1月至2012年12月手足口病的月发病数资料建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,并对预测结果进行评价。结果在手足口病预测中建立ARIMA乘积季节模型的最优模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)×(1,1,0)12模型,正态化的BIC为(贝叶斯信息准测)12.31。结论建立的ARIMA模型能较好地拟合和预测南昌市手足口病的月发病数,为手足口病的防治提供参考依据。

Objective To understand the feasibility of using multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average（ ARIMA） model to predict the monthly incidence of hand foot and mouth disease（ HFMD）. Methods ARIMA model w as established by using surveillance data of HFM D in Nanchang from January 1 2009 to December 31 2012,and the prediction results w ere evaluated. Results M ultiple seasonal ARIM A（ 0,1,1）（ 1,1,0）12model w as established for the prediction of HFM D incidence,and the result of normal BIC w as 12. 31. Conclusion The multiple seasonal ARIM A model established had good fitting and prediction pow er fo the monthly incidence of HFM D in Nanchang,w hich can be used in the prevention and control of HFM D.