海洋运输成本及其对出口贸易的影响

Marine Transportation Cost and the Effects to Export Trade

海洋运输已经成为一国对外贸易的重要运输方式,其运输成本的高低对一国贸易的影响极为重要。在分析海洋运输成本的8个主要影响因素:港口的集装箱吞吐量、港口的基础设施质量、班轮运输相关指数、出口成本、空间距离、全球竞争性指数、物流绩效指数和燃料价格后,运用主成分分析法对这些因素进行降维,综合出原始数据85%以上的信息;再通过提取的4个因子测算出海洋运输成本的综合指标,将构建出来的海洋运输成本综合指标引入到出口贸易的模型当中,同时运用分位数回归分别对2008年和2012年的数据作进一步分析,结果表明:与2008年相比,2012年人均GDP、人口规模、两国距离对出口贸易的影响在逐步减弱,而海洋运输成本综合指标对出口贸易的影响则逐渐增强。因此,各国应充分利用本国的优势,努力降低海洋运输成本,积极加强港口基础设施的建设,提高港口服务质量,加强港口与港口之间的货物承接能力以及网络互联来促进国际贸易的发展。

Marine transport has became an important mode of transportation of a country＇ s foreign trade,transport costs extremely affect the level of a country＇ s trade. By analyzing the eight main factors maritime transport costs ： port container, quality of port infrastructure,liner shipping connectivity index, ex- port costs ,distance, global competitiveness index,logistics performance index and fuel prices, then use principal component analysis reduce the dimension of more than 85% of consolidated information of the o- riginal data. By extracted four factors measure out a comprehensive indicator of ocean transportation costs, which build up a comprehensive marine transportation cost index,then introduced it into the export trade model, while the use of quantile regression, respectively in 2008 and 2012 for a further discussion. The re- sults show that：compared to 2008, the impact on exports of per capita GDP, population size is gradually weakened in 2012 ;the impacts of ocean transportation costs comprehensive index of export trade become strongly. Therefore, countries should make full use of their advantages and strive to reduce the cost of o- cean transportation. The government should actively promote the construction of port infrastructure, im- prove port service quality, strengthen the capacity to undertake the port and cargo between ports and net- working to promote the development of international trade.