城镇化、产业结构调整对城乡收入差距的作用机理及动态分析

The Mechanism of and the Dynamic Analysis on the Effect of Urbanization and Industrial Structure Adjustment on Urban-Rural Income Gap

从城市化和产业结构两个维度分析城乡收入差距扩大的原因。通过构建理论模型分析发现，城市化水平的不断提高会先缩小城乡收入差距，然后扩大城乡收入差距；相反，产业结构的优化调整会先扩大城乡收入差距。然后缩小城乡收入差距。通过构建VAR模型，应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析等方法，对中国1952-2012年城市化、产业结构、城乡收入差距的时间序列进行分析得出，城市化对城乡收入差距扩大的影响虽然相对较小。但也扩大了城乡收入差距。产业结构变动是引起城乡收入差距扩大的主要原因，且随着产业结构的不断优化，对城乡收入差距扩大的影响效应先为正后为负。城市化和产业结构调整对城乡收入差距的影响随着中国经济政策的改变而作用原理不同。利用Granger因果检验发现，城市化和产业结构变动是城乡收入差距扩大的格兰杰原因。

This paper analyzed the reasons of the urban-rural income gap expansion from two dimensions of urbanization and industrial structure. Through constructing a theoretical model, the analysis shows that the increasing level of urbanization would first narrow the urban-rural income gap, but widen it afterward ; and on the contrary, the optimization of the industrial structure adjustment will expand the urban-rural income gap, and then reduce the urban-rural income gap. By constructing a VAR model and using the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis method with a time series of 1952-2012, the urbanization, industrial structure, urban-rural income gap in China were analyzed, we found that the influence of urbanization on urban-rural income gap was relatively small, but it also expanded the urban-rural income gap. The change of industrial structure is the main reason for the expansion of urban-rural income gap, and with the continuous optimization of industrial structure, its effect on urban-rural income gap gradually changes from positive to negative. The effects of urbanization and industrial structure adjustment in China on the urban-rural income gap has been changing with the change in economic policy, but with different mechanism. Using Granger causality test, we found that the urbanization and industrial structure change are the Granger cause of widening the urban-rural income gap.