中国城乡消费差距的拐点判定及其增长效应

The Inflection Point of China's Urban and Rural Consumption and its Economic Growth Effect

本文利用1992—2012年我国29个省区的面板数据,采用固定效应模型实证研究了城市化对城乡消费差距的影响,以及城乡消费差距对经济增长的作用。结果显示:城市化是引致城乡消费差距变动的核心变量,且城市化导致中国的城乡消费差距呈现出先增后减的"倒U型"趋势,"倒U型"拐点大致发生在2003年,东部地区城乡消费差距的"倒U型"趋势显著于中西部地区。20世纪90年代初期以来,我国的城乡消费差距与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系,城乡消费差距拉大对经济增长产生了负面效应,且这种负面效应在东部地区要比中西部地区表现得更为显著。可见,我国的城市化、城乡消费差距和经济增长之间存在着依次影响的关系,且这种影响关系具有时段差异性和区域异质性。

This paper has analyzed the relationships of urbanization, urban -rural consumption gap and economic growth according to panel data of China＇ s 29 provinces from 1992 to 2012. The results show that, urbanization is the core factor which causes the change of urban -rural consumption gap; there is inverted U trend in China＇ s urban and rural consumption gap; the inflection point of inverted U trend appeared in 2003 ; and the inverted U trend in eastern region is more significant than that in western and central regions. Since the early 1990s, there has been a long-term stable relationship between urban-rural consumption gap and economic growth in China. The gap between urban and rural consumption has a negative effect on economic growth, and the negative effects in eastern region is more significant than those in western and central regions. Among the urbanization, urban-rural consumption gap and economic growth, there is some influence in turn, which has the diversity in time and region.