重庆农村金融与经济发展的相关性研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Research on Correlation Between Rural Finance and Economic Development of Chongqing——Based on Empirical Analysis of VAR

运用VAR模型、协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应方法分析了重庆农村金融发展与经济增长之间的关系。研究结果显示:从协整关系来看,农村金融支农程度和农村金融相关率与农村经济增长率的增长呈正相关。Granger因果关系表明:重庆农村金融相关比率是农村经济增长的Granger原因,而农村金融支农程度则不是。VAR模型分析结果表明:前期的农村金融相关比率对当期农村经济增长的影响最大,前期农村金融支农程度对农村经济增长率有着较弱的负面影响,但脉冲响应显示其并没有成为农村经济增长的阻碍因素。综合而言,农村金融发展与农村经济增长存在着长期均衡状态,农村金融发展促进农村经济增长。

Using methods of VAR model, Co-integration test, Granger causality test, and impulse re- sponse, we analyzed the relationship between financial development and economic growth of Chongqing＇ s country. Research results show that both the degree of finance supporting agriculture and rural financial interrelations ratio have a direct proportion with the rural economic growth rate from Co- integration test. The financial interrelations ratio of Chongqing＇ s country is the Granger cause of eco-nomic growthaccording to Granger causality test, but is not the same to the rural finance supporting agriculture degree. From the result of VAR model, we found that the previous financial interrelations ratio has the biggest influence on the current economic growth, while the previous degree of finance supporting agriculture has little negative influence on it. However, from impulse response, it is not the obstacle to prevent rural economy from increasing. On the whole, rural finance development and economic growth exist in a balance state for a long time, and financial development has a positive im- pact on the economic growth.