气候增暖对热带大气季节内振荡能量传播的影响研究

Studies of tropical atmospheric inter-seasonal oscillation energy propagation changes by the action of climate warming

针对近百年来气候增暖这一观测事实,探讨了气候增暖背景下热带大气季节内振荡(ISO)能量传播的长期变化问题。利用56年的NCAR/NCEP再分析资料、中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值拟国家重点实验室发展的耦合气候模式FGOALS1.0_g的60年数值模拟结果,采用时空谱方法对比分析了实测资料、模式的控制试验和CO21%等比增加的模拟结果。实测资料分析得出:气候增暖将导致热带大气ISO东传波能量相对增强,西传波能量相对减弱。数值模拟结果分析证实是CO2持续增加导致了气候增暖,同时它也是热带大气ISO东传波能量增强西传波能量减弱的主要原因。

According to the observation fact of global climate warming for the past hundred years, the long-term changes of tropical atmosphere inter-seasonal oscillation （ISO） energy propagation problem. Using the last 56 year NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and the background of global climate warming are explored. It is founds that climate warming would cause the tropical eastward-propagation ISO energy ratio relatively increasing hut westward-propagation ISO energy ratio relatively reduce by means of space-time spectrum method. It is also showed that ISO energy of eastward/westward-propagation relatively increase/reduce maybe caused by the CO2 density increasing.