T639数值预报产品对黄渤海沿海大风预报效果检验

Evaluation of T639 numerical forecast products during the strong gales in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea

根据影响系统对2008—2011年黄渤海沿海的大风分了四个天气类型:气旋、低槽冷锋、台风和综合类。对不同类型的大风天气,就T639数值预报产品天气系统的影响时间、强度和中心位置以及大风出现的开始时间、结束时间、大风落区、最大风速值和最大风速值的开始时间、结束时间和落区的预报准确率进行了统计。结果表明,T639数值预报对黄渤海沿海大风具有较好的预报准确率,漏报率较低;对于台风类的预报能力偏差;预报数值比实况偏小,当预报有气旋、或预报大风时间长范围大时,实况风将增大1—2个量级;对于大风的开始时间预报略偏早,而对于大风的结束时间和最大风速的开始和结束时间预报均略偏晚。

According to the systems of winds processes from 2008 to 2011 in the coastal area of Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, the gales are divided into four weather patterns： cyclones, the low trough cold front, typhoon and comprehensive. For different types of wind weather, the forecast accuracy of the affected time, intensity, center position of the weather system and the start time, end time, the area of the gale, the value, start time, end time and the area of the maximum is statistically analyzed. The results show that the forecast accurate rate of T639 numerical gale in the coastal area of Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea performs well and the missed event ratio is low. However, the forecasting capability of typhoon isnot good enough.The value of gale is lower than real data. If the cyclone or gale with features of long time and large scales is predicated by T639,then the real data will increase 1-2 level. Also, the forecast start time of gale is just slightly early, the forecast end time of gale, the start time and end time of the maximum are just slightly late than the real data.