城市交通出行行为中的潜变量研究综述

A Review of Latent Variable on Urban Travel Behavior

潜变量是提高交通出行行为预测精度的有效方法,潜变量的提出为出行行为研究提供了新视角.为解决目前出行行为中缺少潜变量概念认知及潜变量应用的问题,本文从社会心理学入手,分析已有出行行为建模方法的特点,提出潜变量研究的必要性,对出行行为中潜变量内涵、应用领域、模型构建进行系统梳理,明确潜变量研究的三个核心问题是识别、有效性验证及计算.评述与研究涵盖潜变量的出行行为整合模型的机遇、难点和挑战.并揭示潜变量测度方法与SP/RP调查的关联性,综述潜变量模型检验判定标准,最后总结出行行为潜变量研究的发展趋势及发展方向.

Latent variable methed is an effective way to improve the prediction accuracy of travel behavior. And a new perspective to travel behavior research is provided by latent variable. In order to solve the problems about lack of cognition and application of latent variable on travel behavior, the characteristics of existing travel behavior modeling method are analyzed based on social psychology. And the necessity of research on the latent variable is proposed. The connotation, application field and model building of latent variable on urban travel behavior are systemized. Three core problems are defined, which are identification, validation and calculation. It is reviewed and studied the opportunity, difficulty and challenge of travel behavior integrated model covering the latent variables. The relevance between measure method of latent variable and SP/RP survey is revealed. And then the model test standard is summarized. Finally the development trend of latent variable research and the direction of our efforts are proposed.