摘要
利用我国5省份574个农户农业生产的微观数据,在作物单产和价格服从多元正态分布的假设下运用蒙特卡洛随机模拟技术构建标准化农户,从农户的视角出发利用幂函数效用评估模型对我国种植业保险实施效果及可能的改进方案进行了模拟分析。结果表明:中国种植业保险增加了农民福利,但仍需要进一步完善;政府提供45%以上的保费补贴是种植业保险顺利推行的必要条件;种植业保险的完善需要统筹考虑,单纯提高保险金额并不能有效提高我国种植业保险的效果。
In view of 574 individual farmers＇ datasets and under the assumption that unit produce and price com- plied with multivariate normal distribution, this paper evaluated the effectiveness of Chinese crop insurance program by developing a simulation model based on power utility function and the simulation data of representative farmers which were calibrated using Monte Carlo Stochastic Method. It is found that ： 1 ） Chinese crop insurance program did increase farmers＇ welfare but still need to be improved;2） Government offering 45% subsidy on premiums was a prerequisite for implementing crop insurance program ;3 ） Enlarging the insured value only could not heighten the effect of crop insurance significantly. Other factors should also be considered holistically.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第11期42-55,共14页
Insurance Studies
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(13JJD790041)
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(2014-J-10)的资助
关键词
种植业保险
效果评估
效用等值
农户
模拟分析
crop insurance
effectiveness evaluation
Effect Equivalent
farmer
simulation
