太湖蓝藻生境对气候变化的响应

Response of blue-green algae habitat in Taihu Lake to climate change

近年来太湖蓝藻暴发已成为重要水污染事件,是太湖面临的重大水安全问题,气候变化因素加剧了其严重性。为了预测未来由于气候变化对太湖蓝藻暴发的影响,并提出应对气候变化的策略,开展了蓝藻生境对气候变化响应关系的研究。基于大量实测气象资料的统计分析与气候变化情景计算,总结分析了近50年来太湖流域气候变化呈现出气温增高、风速略有下降、日照减少、降雨增多、湿度降低等趋势。气候变化是太湖蓝藻水华暴发的重要影响因素,其中气温与风速变化是影响太湖藻类生长的敏感气象因子。气温升高导致的蓝藻暴发风险平均10年将增加约2%,风速降低导致蓝藻水华暴发的风险平均每5年增加约3.5%。结合蓝藻对敏感因子响应关系的试验结果,提出了截污减排、适当清除底泥、打捞蓝藻、调水引流、修复生态等应对措施。

In recent years,the algae bloom in Taihu Lake has become an important water pollution event and a major water safety problem,aggravated by a factor of the climate change. In order to predict the influence of future climate change on the bloom of the blue algae in Taihu Lake,and propose the adaptation strategy,a research on the relationship between the climate change and cyanobacteria habitat was carried out. Based on a lot of measured meteorological data and the climate change scenario calculations,the trend of the climate change for the recent 50 years of Taihu Lake basin is obtained： increasing in air temperature,slight decreasing in wind speed,reducing in sunshine time,increasing in rainfall and decreasing in humidity. The main impact factors of the climate change on the blue-green algae bloom in Taihu Lake are the variations in air temperature and wind speed. The risk of the blue-green algae blooms is rising by approximately 2% per 10 years,caused by air temperature increases and by about 3. 5% every 5 years on average,caused by wind speed decreases. Based on experimental responses of the blue-green algae to the sensitive factors, some countermeasures are suggested, including cutting pollution abatement,removing sediment appropriately,salvaging the blue-green algae,water diversion and drainage,and ecological restoration,etc.