基于区间直觉模糊数的管道失效概率评估

Assessment of pipeline failure probability based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number

失效概率评估是管道定量风险评估的关键。将区间直觉模糊数引入专家对管道失效可能性的评估中,以便从支持、反对、犹豫3方面用区间的形式全面表述专家的评判信息;在假定该区间直觉模糊数的区间记分函数服从正态分布的前提下,定义了一种考虑信息使用者风险偏好的区间数点算子,利用D-S证据理论和灰色关联分析实现多位专家评估信息的融合;通过选取不同的风险偏好因子,探讨失效事件发生概率及结构重要度排序的变化趋势,在完善管道失效概率评估的同时,降低了失效底事件集的不确定性。以管道焊接失效为例,阐述了该失效概率评估方法,并验证了其有效性。

Failure probability assessment is the key of quantitative risk assessment of pipeline. The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number（IVIFN） is introduced into the expert＇s assessment of failure probability in order to present the expert＇s conclusions comprehensively as regards to support, objection and hesitation in the form of interval. Assuming that the interval score function of the IVIFN is subject to normal distribution, an interval point operator is defined considering the risk appetite of information users. Assessment results of many experts are integrated using D-S evidence theory and grey relational analysis. Different risk appetite factors are selected to identify the trends of failure probability and priority of structural importance. Moreover, the assessment of pipeline failure probability is improved, while the uncertainty of failure event sources is reduced. In this paper, this method of failure probability assessment is used for a pipe welding failure, and its effectiveness is verified.