基于比例风险模型的装备状态维修决策方法

Equipment Condition-based Maintenance Decision-Making Method Based on Proportional Hazard Model

利用多维状态特征参数对装备故障风险的强相关关系,采用威布尔比例风险模型建立了状态维修决策模型。针对典型比例风险建模过程中参数估计方面存在的缺点,采用基于遗传算法的参数估计方法,提高了建模精度。针对检测间隔期决策,提出通过确定状态劣化阈值,在状态劣化阶段实施动态检测的检测策略,建立了区间型检测间隔期优化方法;针对维修行为决策,将失效风险阈值与状态检测间隔期阈值相结合维修行为的综合决策,提高了决策的稳定性。以某发动机为例对状态维修决策方法的有效性进行了验证。

According to the fact that the reliability of equipment is heavily related to complicated condition parameters,Weibull proportional hazard model was taken to construct the reliability model.In order to promote the modeling precision of the model,the genetic algorithm was utilized to estimate parameters in the model.According to the decision-making method of inspection interval,a deteriorating threshold was set to trigger dynamic condition inspection,and a flexible interval type of optimization method for inspection was illustrated.Aimed at the maintenance action determination,hazard threshold and inspection interval threshold were combined to perform comprehensive maintenance action decision-making so as to enhance stability of decision-making method.A case study of certain type of engine was put forward to verify the feasibility and reasonability of the model.