基于Logistic模型的县域城镇化率及其推进预测——以济南市平阴县为例

A Study on the County Urbanization Rate and Its Development Prediction Based on Logistic Model ——A case of Pingyin county of Jinan city

我国把加快发展中小城市作为当前优化城镇规模结构的主攻方向,以此为背景,县域城镇化在国家城镇化战略框架中的重要性进一步凸显。为推动县域城镇化的科学发展,以济南市平阴县为例,利用SPSS统计分析软件进行Logistic模型曲线估计的操作,得出城镇化率预测值,并通过纵向(与全国、省、市)及横向(与周边县市)间的比较,为平阴县找准城镇化发展定位,进而确定合理的城镇化增速。从而在当前和未来两个层面上探讨了平阴县城镇化率的发展态势,亦希望能够为县域城镇化发展提供一种科学的衡量手段和预测路径。

China has taken it as the main direction to optimize of urban scale and structure to speed up the current development of small and medium-sized cities. Accordingly, the scientific development of county urbanization becomes more and more important to the strategy framework of China＇s urbanization. Based on the parameter estimation of Logistic curve model of SPSS, the paper concludes the predictive value of urbanization rate of Pingyin county of Jinan city. With both the vertical （of cities in China） and lateral （of neighboring cities） comparisons, the paper defines the orientation of urbanization development of Pingyin county, and determines the reasonable growth of its urbanization. It also discusses the development trend of Pingyin＇s urbanization rate now and future to provide a scientific measure and predictive path for the development of county urbanization.