轨道交通一般站点换乘方式选择概率模型研究

Probability Model of Transfer Mode Choice in General Rail Transit Site

轨道交通站点两端换乘情况影响着乘客的出行方式选择,找到影响轨道交通站点与其他交通方式换乘时的主要影响因素,制定相应的交通政策以提高一般站点换乘乘客出行的满意度和比例,可以有效提高轨道交通出行比例。在确定研究范围和对象基础上,对可能的影响因素进行了问卷调查,统计并分析调查数据,得到一般站点换乘交通方式选择的影响因素;然后将可能的影响因素作为特性变量,以Logistic回归模型理论为基础,采用SPSS19.0软件检验模型、估计参数,建立了一般站点换乘方式选择概率模型,依据模型参数,举例分析了设施影响因素的敏感性。最后,通过分析不同站点模型的异同性,说明了模型的适用范围及其应用方向。

Passenger＇s transfer in transit site affect the modal choice, to find out the main factors influence passengers transfer mode in rail transit sites, and formulate the relevant transportation policy to improve the satisfaction will effectively raise the rail transit modal ratio. In this paper, firstly, the research scope and object are determined and questionnaire survey about the possible influencing factors was implemented. Through the statistical analysis of the investigation results, the mail influencing factors that affect transfer mode choice of general sites are selected. Secondly, based on Logistic regression model theory, making the possible influence factors as the characteristic variables, using the SPSS19.0 software to test model and estimate parameters, then probability model of three general sites＇ transfer options was founded. And according to the model parameters the sensitivity of the facilities influencing factors are analysis based on case study. Finally, by analyzing the model of differences and similarities, the applicability of the model and its application direction are illustrated.